Monthly forecasts

USD/JPY Monthly Fundamental Forecast – April 2016

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The USD/JPY closed out March at 112.50 seeing a decline of 1.32% after touching a high just days ago. Negative interest rates initiated by the Bank of Japan continued to weigh on the currency.  The Japanese economy continues to struggle, and weak global growth and softness in neighboring China has taken a big bite out of the Japanese export sector. Domestic demand has also fallen, and the situation will not improve unless Japanese consumers open their wallet strings and start spending more. Earlier this week, Japanese consumer spending indicators were mixed. Retail Sales broke a nasty streak of three consecutive declines, posting a gain of 0.5 percent in February. There was better news from Household Spending, which posted a strong gain of 1.2 percent, after five consecutive declines. The BoJ remains under pressure to make a move at the April policy meeting, although it’s questionable whether the BoJ has any remaining monetary tools that would be effective. The central bank adopted negative rates in January, shocking the markets, but this has done little to breathe life into the economy or raise anemic inflation levels.The BoJ also downwardly revised its total assessment on economy somewhat in March. The central bank stated that the country’s economy continues on its modest rebound trend even if exports and production have been weak mainly because to impact of slowdown in emerging nations. According to the BoJ, production and exports will continue to be sluggish for some time.FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.usdjpy mUpcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, April 1, 2016
  JPYTankan Large Manufacturers Index812
  CNYManufacturing PMI (Mar)49.349.0
  CNYCaixin Manufacturing PMI (Mar)48.248.0
  EURGerman Manufacturing PMI (Mar)50.450.4
  GBPManufacturing PMI (Mar)51.250.8
  USDNonfarm Payrolls (Mar)205K242K
  USDUnemployment Rate (Mar)4.9%4.9%
Monday, April 4, 2016
China – Tomb Sweeping Day
  AUDRetail Sales (MoM) (Feb)0.3%
  GBPConstruction PMI (Mar)54.2
Tuesday, April 5, 2016
  AUDInterest Rate Decision (Apr)2.00%
  GBPConstruction PMI (Mar)54.2
  GBPServices PMI (Mar)52.7
  USDISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Mar)54.153.4
Wednesday, April 6, 2016
  GBPServices PMI (Mar)52.7
  CADIvey PMI (Mar)53.4
Friday, April 8, 2016
  GBPManufacturing Production (MoM)0.7%
  CADEmployment Change (Mar)-2.3K
Monday, April 11, 2016
  CNYCPI (YoY) (Mar)2.3%
Tuesday, April 12, 2016
  GBPCPI (YoY) (Mar)0.3%
Wednesday, April 13, 2016
  CNYTrade Balance (USD) (Mar)32.59B
  USDRetail Sales (MoM) (Mar)-0.1%
  CADInterest Rate Decision0.50%
Thursday, April 14, 2016
  AUDEmployment Change (Mar)0.3K
  EURCPI (YoY) (Mar)
  GBPInterest Rate Decision (Apr)0.50%
Friday, April 15, 2016
  CNYGDP (YoY) (Q1)6.8%
  CNYIndustrial Production (YoY) (Mar)5.4%
Monday, April 18, 2016
  NZDCPI (QoQ) (Q1)-0.5%
Tuesday, April 19, 2016
  EURGerman ZEW Economic Sentiment4.3
Wednesday, April 20, 2016
  GBPClaimant Count Change (Mar)-18.0K
Monday, April 25, 2016
Friday, April 29, 2016


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