Weekly forecasts

Oil Fundamental Forecast – April 8, 2016


Oil is down 9 cents at 37.66 while Brent Oil is down 7 cents at 39.77 reversing early morning gains as more and more headlines from OPEC nations continued to expand doubts of a production freeze this month. Despite Kuwait’s positive role, traders are still worried about Saudi Arabia’s role amid its rivalry with Iran. On the other hand, Iran has been constantly increasing its output and exports to neighboring countries. In the last two months, Iran has increased its oil exports by 11% to India, which was Saudi Arabia’s largest customer.In addition, these major producers are now offering oil at a discounted price to their customers in order to retain their market share. Therefore, analysts are expecting oil to trade in the range of $40 a barrel in the short-term.the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its weekly inventory report, which showed US crude oil inventories falling by 4.9 million barrels in the week ending April 1. The total US stockpile now stands at 529.9 million barrels. The consensus analyst estimate was for a build of 3.2 million barrels, according to Thomson Reuters. On Tuesday, data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed U.S. crude oil stockpiles dropping by 4.3 million barrels last week.Input into crude oil refineries averaged 199,000 more barrels per day than the prior week’s average, bringing the average to over 16.4 million barrels per day.Gasoline production increased for the week, averaging over 9.6 million barrels per day. The production of distillate fuel (diesel and fuel oils) decreased, averaging over 4.8 million barrels per day.FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.WEEKLYThis Week in Petroleum

Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.

Today’s economic releases:

  USDFOMC Member Bullard Speaks
  USDFOMC Member Kaplan Speaks
  JPYBoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks
  GBPHalifax House Price Index (YoY) (Mar)9.5%9.7%
  EURECB Monetary Policy Meeting
  USDInitial Jobless Claims270K276K
  CADBuilding Permits (MoM) (Feb)4.8%-9.8%
  EURECB President Draghi Speaks

 crude oil

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, April 8, 2016

  USDFed Chair Yellen Speaks
  JPYAdjusted Current Account1.57T1.49T
  JPYCurrent Account n.s.a. (Feb)2.006T0.521T
  USDFOMC Member George Speaks
  EURGerman Trade Balance (Feb)18.5B18.9B
  GBPIndustrial Production (MoM) (Feb)0.1%0.3%
  GBPManufacturing Production (MoM) (Feb)-0.2%0.7%
  GBPTrade Balance (Feb)-10.20B-10.29B
  GBPTrade Balance Non-EU (Feb)-2.60B-2.20B
  CADHousing Starts (Mar)190.0K212.6K
  CADEmployment Change (Mar)10.0K-2.3K
  CADUnemployment Rate (Mar)7.3%7.3%
  GBPNIESR GDP Estimate0.3%
  USDBaker Hughes U.S. Rig Count362

Government Bond Auctions

Date    Country

Apr 08 17:20 Italy Announces details of bond auction

Apr 08 12:00 Iceland Holds bond auction

Apr 12 11:30 Germany Holds I/L bond auction

Apr 12 19:00 US Holds 3-year note auction

Apr 13 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Apr 13 11:10 Italy Holds bond auction

Apr 13 11:15 Switzerland Holds bond auction

Apr 13 11:30 UK Holds bond auction

Apr 13 19:00 US Holds 10-year note auction

Apr 14 12:00 Iceland Holds bond auction

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