Monthly forecasts

NZD/USD Monthly Fundamental Forecast – April 2016


The NZD/USD closed the quarter at 0.6913 near its highest level for 2016. The kiwi gained 4.315 this month mostly on the weaker US dollar and the rally in commodity prices. Retail traders have sold into the New Zealand Dollar’s surge versus the US Dollar, and a contrarian view of crowd sentiment points to further NZD/USD gains.The higher kiwi “puts a greater deal of pressure on the Reserve Bank to cut in April rather than June,” Kelleher said, although he noted the next meeting on April 28 is an official cash rate announcement, limited to a one-page statement, rather than a Monetary Policy Statement which involves a press conference and gives the bank more of an opportunity to explain its views.The kiwi is likely to maintain a stronger bias, with a base of around 69 US cents, ahead of the key US non-farm payrolls report tomorrow, and as investment fund portfolio managers increase their allocations for the currency as they adjust their accounts at the end of the month, he said.The New Zealand dollar vs US dollar exchange rate continues to take a bullish stance despite US employment data coming in as forecast and FED Evans saying that interest rates could move in June 2016.”What’s remarkable about the move in the New Zealand dollar is the lack of significant data and the central bank’s easing bias,” notes Kathy Lien at BK Asset Management, “the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is one of the few policymaking bodies still talking about more cuts.”After lowering interest rates in March, the RBNZ signaled plans to ease again with the market looking for the move in June.Yet, in a world where central bank easing is becoming increasingly ineffective one wonders whether the RBNZ will achieve anything apart from stoking the flames of an already-hot property market.FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.nzdusd mUpcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, April 1, 2016
  JPYTankan Large Manufacturers Index812
  CNYManufacturing PMI (Mar)49.349.0
  CNYCaixin Manufacturing PMI (Mar)48.248.0
  EURGerman Manufacturing PMI (Mar)50.450.4
  GBPManufacturing PMI (Mar)51.250.8
  USDNonfarm Payrolls (Mar)205K242K
  USDUnemployment Rate (Mar)4.9%4.9%
Monday, April 4, 2016
China – Tomb Sweeping Day
  AUDRetail Sales (MoM) (Feb)0.3%
  GBPConstruction PMI (Mar)54.2
Tuesday, April 5, 2016
  AUDInterest Rate Decision (Apr)2.00%
  GBPConstruction PMI (Mar)54.2
  GBPServices PMI (Mar)52.7
  USDISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Mar)54.153.4
Wednesday, April 6, 2016
  GBPServices PMI (Mar)52.7
  CADIvey PMI (Mar)53.4
Friday, April 8, 2016
  GBPManufacturing Production (MoM)0.7%
  CADEmployment Change (Mar)-2.3K
Monday, April 11, 2016
  CNYCPI (YoY) (Mar)2.3%
Tuesday, April 12, 2016
  GBPCPI (YoY) (Mar)0.3%
Wednesday, April 13, 2016
  CNYTrade Balance (USD) (Mar)32.59B
  USDRetail Sales (MoM) (Mar)-0.1%
  CADInterest Rate Decision0.50%
Thursday, April 14, 2016
  AUDEmployment Change (Mar)0.3K
  EURCPI (YoY) (Mar)
  GBPInterest Rate Decision (Apr)0.50%
Friday, April 15, 2016
  CNYGDP (YoY) (Q1)6.8%
  CNYIndustrial Production (YoY) (Mar)5.4%
Monday, April 18, 2016
  NZDCPI (QoQ) (Q1)-0.5%
Tuesday, April 19, 2016
  EURGerman ZEW Economic Sentiment4.3
Wednesday, April 20, 2016
  GBPClaimant Count Change (Mar)-18.0K
Monday, April 25, 2016
Friday, April 29, 2016

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