Hottest News Analysis

JPY slips amid the details of the stimulus package

It was another volatile session for the Japanese yen. Speculation is abundant as the market tries to guess what the Bank of Japan actually presented at the meeting on Friday. As for USD / JPY in the last two days, we clearly see that the market has absolutely no idea what the next move by the Bank of Japan. However, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has given more information about the fiscal stimulus that his government is planning to implement. At this point, there seems to be a Packaging 28 trillion yen (USD265 million), designed to shore up the economy. More details will undoubtedly continue in the coming days. The USD / JPY slid as low as 103.99 in early European session yesterday as market participants anticipate a disappointing announcement from the Japanese central bank. On Wednesday morning, the yen erased those gains and tested 106.5 against the dollar before stabilizing around 105.50.

In the US, the July meeting of the FOMC will soon begin his last day. We still anticipate that this will be a non-event as the Fed simply have enough solid data to support a rate hike in the foreseeable future. Accordingly, the Committee will make some minor changes in the statement. Things are going to get serious however, in the September meeting. EUR / USD treaded water in Tokyo, as was trapped below the threshold of 1.10. The currency pair is still trading with a negative bias, as tested the bottom of its channel downward trend for the fourth consecutive day. Currently around 1.0975, a break of 1.0950 level will leave the wide open road to the next support level is at 1.0822 (3rd October).

commodity currencies were affected during the Asian session as most commodity prices keep sliding lower. The West Texas Intermediate fell another 0.23% to $ 42.85 per barrel, while the international gauge, a barrel of Brent, was off 0.18% to $ 44.80 a barrel. Since last Thursday, the WTI lost more than 7% in the context of renewed fears glut. The degradation of the Australian dollar is also exacerbated by the second quarter report mixed inflation, raising the question of another RBA rate cut. The CPI stood at 1% y / y, down from 1.3% in the previous quarter, while the trimmed mean gauge printed at 1.7% y / y, stable compared to the first quarter, but still below the central bank’s target of 2% – 3%.

In the stock market, stock returns Asia were widely mixed on Wednesday as both the mainland and offshore Chinese stocks traded in negative territory. Japan equities recovered from acute degradation yesterday with the Nikkei bounced 1.98%. In Europe, the futures are green flashing across the screen, pointing to a higher open.

Global IndexesCurrent Level% Change
Nikkei 225 Index16708.011.98
Hang Seng Index22055.36-0.34
Shanghai Index2965.771-2.77
FTSE futures66880.14
DAX futures10246.50.68
SMI Futures82180.48
S&P future2167.30.18

Oil falls close to three-month low as oversupply weighs


Global IndexesCurrent Level% Change
Crude wti42.82-0.23
USD Index97.170.01


Today’s CalendarEstimatesPreviousCountry/GMT
SP Jun Retail Sales YoY2,80%EUR/07:00
SP Jun Retail Sales SA YoY3,60%2,30%EUR/07:00
SW Jul Consumer Confidence9898,7SEK/07:00
SW Jul Manufacturing Confidence s.a.104,4104,8SEK/07:00
SW Jul Economic Tendency Survey102,9103,2SEK/07:00
SW Jun Trade Balance-2.1bSEK/07:30
SW Jun Household Lending YoY7,80%SEK/07:30
EC Jun M3 Money Supply YoY5,00%4,90%EUR/08:00
IT Jul Consumer Confidence Index109,2110,2EUR/08:00
IT Jul Manufacturing Confidence102102,8EUR/08:00
IT Jul Economic Sentiment101,2EUR/08:00
UK 2Q A GDP QoQ0,50%0,40%GBP/08:30
UK 2Q A GDP YoY2,10%2,00%GBP/08:30
UK May Index of Services MoM0,10%0,60%GBP/08:30
UK May Index of Services 3M/3M0,30%0,50%GBP/08:30
UK Jul CBI Retailing Reported Sales14GBP/10:00
UK Jul CBI Total Dist. Reported Sales14GBP/10:00
US Jul 22 MBA Mortgage Applications-1,30%USD/11:00
US Jun P Durable Goods Orders-1,40%-2,30%USD/12:30
US Jun P Durables Ex Transportation0,30%-0,30%USD/12:30
US Jun P Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0,20%-0,40%USD/12:30
US Jun P Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0,40%-0,50%USD/12:30
RU Jul 25 CPI Weekly YTD3,80%RUB/13:00
RU Jul 25 CPI WoW0,10%RUB/13:00
BZ Jun Outstanding Loans MoM0,10%BRL/13:30
BZ Jun Total Outstanding Loans3145bBRL/13:30
BZ Jun Personal Loan Default Rate6,30%BRL/13:30
US Jun Pending Home Sales MoM1,20%-3,70%USD/14:00
US Jun Pending Home Sales NSA YoY3,00%2,40%USD/14:00
US Jul 22 DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories-2000k-2342kUSD/14:30
US Jul 22 DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory-500k189kUSD/14:30
BZ Currency Flows WeeklyBRL/15:30
US Jul 27 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)0,50%0,50%USD/18:00
US Jul 27 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)0,25%0,25%USD/18:00
BZ Jun Formal Job Creation Total-58700-72615BRL/19:00
BZ Jun Tax Collections98327m95219mBRL/22:00

Currency Tech
R 2: 1.1428
R 1: 1.1186
CURRENT: 1.0990
S 1: 1.0913
S 2: 1.0822

R 2: 1.3981
R 1: 1.3534
CURRENT: 1.3119
S 1: 1.2851
S 2: 1.2798

R 2: 109.14
R 1: 107.90
CURRENT: 105.65
S 1: 103.99
S 2: 99.02

R 2: 1.0328
R 1: 0.9956
CURRENT: 0.9938
S 1: 0.9764
S 2: 0.9685

S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot

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