Weekly forecasts

Gold Fundamental Forecast – April 8, 2016

gold (2)

Gold continued to gain as safety became the market go word. Gold added close to $13 to reach 1236.70. A weaker tone across major global equity markets and increased risk aversion triggered a recovery in gold prices.Risk appetite deteriorated during the Asian session with a further slide in oil prices and retreating equity markets. The Nikkei index declined for the sixth successive session following a weaker close on Wall Street. The dollar came under fresh selling pressure against the yen as USD/JPY dipped below 111.00 and touched the lowest levels since October 2014.US equities were mixed while US benchmark 10-year bonds were slightly higher at 1.74%. In this environment, gold drifted generally lower with confidence again undermined by the failure to break resistance levels with a succession of lower highs over the past week.Concerns remained over the timing of US interest rate hikes after recent comments from Federal Reserve officials. Gold had posted its biggest quarterly rise in nearly 30 years in the March quarter, rallying 16 percent as expectations faded that the Fed would move to normalize interest rates due to concerns over the global economy. The US central bank raised rates in December for the first time in nearly a decade.But recent hawkish comments have worried bullion investors. Gold is highly exposed to rising US interest rates because they lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.Today’s economic releases:

  USDFOMC Member Bullard Speaks
  USDFOMC Member Kaplan Speaks
  JPYBoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks
  GBPHalifax House Price Index (YoY) (Mar)9.5%9.7%
  EURECB Monetary Policy Meeting
  USDInitial Jobless Claims270K276K
  CADBuilding Permits (MoM) (Feb)4.8%-9.8%
  EURECB President Draghi Speaks

 goldUpcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:Friday, April 8, 2016

  USDFed Chair Yellen Speaks
  JPYAdjusted Current Account1.57T1.49T
  JPYCurrent Account n.s.a. (Feb)2.006T0.521T
  USDFOMC Member George Speaks
  EURGerman Trade Balance (Feb)18.5B18.9B
  GBPIndustrial Production (MoM) (Feb)0.1%0.3%
  GBPManufacturing Production (MoM) (Feb)-0.2%0.7%
  GBPTrade Balance (Feb)-10.20B-10.29B
  GBPTrade Balance Non-EU (Feb)-2.60B-2.20B
  CADHousing Starts (Mar)190.0K212.6K
  CADEmployment Change (Mar)10.0K-2.3K
  CADUnemployment Rate (Mar)7.3%7.3%
  GBPNIESR GDP Estimate0.3%
  USDBaker Hughes U.S. Rig Count362

Government Bond AuctionsDate    CountryApr 08 17:20 Italy Announces details of bond auctionApr 08 12:00 Iceland Holds bond auctionApr 12 11:30 Germany Holds I/L bond auctionApr 12 19:00 US Holds 3-year note auctionApr 13 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auctionApr 13 11:10 Italy Holds bond auctionApr 13 11:15 Switzerland Holds bond auctionApr 13 11:30 UK Holds bond auctionApr 13 19:00 US Holds 10-year note auctionApr 14 12:00 Iceland Holds bond auction

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