Forex Market Update – USD/CHF Technical Outlook
As can be seen from the H4 chart, the pair was recently met by strong selling pressure from offer at 1.0185-1.0161 for the second time, closing the day simply ahead of the 1.01 handle. Now, buying from 1.01 and its partner H4 support seen just below it at 1.0076 is feasible according to the daily chart, as there’s support lodged in between the 2 H4 barriers at 1.0086. On the flipside, weekly flow recently linked with a resistance area at 1.0239-1.0131.
This is probably to force weekly sellers down to the 2016 yearly opening level at 1.0029. As we mentioned in Tuesday’s report, in view of the weekly candles recently nudging into a resistance area along with daily price trading off a support, medium-term direction is somewhat restricted. However, do keep a tab on the daily Quasimodo resistance level at 1.0198, as this barrier sits comfortably within the aforementioned weekly resistance area.
Our suggestions: Given the above factors, here is what our desk has noted so far: For longs, we’d personally avoid the H4 support 1.0076/1.01 handle. although it boasts a daily support, we believe weekly sellers will probably overpower this area and drag prices down to the yearly opening level. This level – coupled with the daily broken Quasimodo line at 1.0037 (intersects with a trendline support taken from the high 0.9956) points the spotlight on a close-by H4 demand base at 0.9994-1.0019 (holds parity) for longs.
Dependent on the time of day, this area sports enough confluence, in our opinion, to allow a trade without the need to wait for confirming price action. For shorts – while the present H4 supply has done a reasonably smart job of holding the market lower, our focus remains above this barrier at 1.02. This psychological boundary converges beautifully with the above noted daily Quasimodo resistance, which itself, as we already know, is positioned within the aforementioned weekly resistance area! although 1.02 sports attractive confluence, a fakeout is still likely around this fixed level.
As such, we’d advise waiting for the lower timeframes to confirm seller interest before considering a trade here as there’s nothing worse than having your trade stopped by a few pips only to later see your target hit! information points to consider today: us ADP nonfarm employment change at 1.15pm, FOMC member Powell speaks at 4.45pm GMT. Levels to watch/live orders: • Buys: 0.9994-1.0019 (dependent on the time of day, a long at market is feasible from this zone, stop loss: 0.9988). • Sells: 1.02 region (waiting for lower timeframe confirming action is preferred, stop loss: dependent on where one confirms the area).