Analysis By Pair

Forex Market Analysis – AUDUSD Institutional Short Setup

Forex Market Analysis – AUDUSD Institutional Short Setup

Given the AUD weakness over the past few days we ar only looking for selling opportunities. This .737 level as you’ll see is a nice area of institutional support turned resistance. you’ll see that institutional traders were previously buying every time price dipped into the level and then once the level was broken sellers came in on the backside of the level. If price pulls back into the level it could be a good place to get short with the trend. As always use a 30-40 pip stop loss and take whatever you’ll on the profit side. good luck! unique Forex is where retail traders become institutional traders. Learn to trade like an institutional trader and become consistently profitable.

Forex Market Analysis

In Other View Point – AB=CD for Bearish Continuation

Bear Flag broke down last week. price trend remains bearish per ichimoku cloud – Below Cloud, bearish Cloud, Bearish TK, LS below Cloud and price. For entries post kumo breakout, you want to see price reach back towards kumo and kijun, which is what happened with a tweezer top on 12/13-12/14. i will be watching this throughout the week.

Forex Market Analysis

In Another View Point – AUDUSD- H4 CHART

D1 chart support zone touched + h4 chart support zone touched + bullish candel + Bullish harmonic pattern confirmed + trendline BreakOut + indicators confirmation = Perfect buy timing at price or under 0.72995.

Forex Market Analysis

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Mohammad Riad

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  • AUD/USD Technical Analysis: December 23, 2016

    The consecutive events regarding the economic growth of US together with the fiscal policy issued by Trump and hawkish outlook of the Fed for 2017 set the minds of the investors to avert from higher-yielding currencies including the Aussie dollar.

    The market carried a bearish sentiment on Thursday. The AUD/USD pair further decline after the 2-day narrow consolidation. The sellers pushed the AUD towards 0.7200 from the previous 0.7250 region in the EU hours. Moreover, sellers failed to surpass the 0.7200 mark which caused them to take a pause. After the price touched the aforesaid levels, it made a roll back.

    As shown in the 1-hour chart, the Australian dollar bounce back through the 50-EMA and resumed a downward trend. The moving averages maintained a bearish pattern as indicated in the same timeframe. Resistance is at 0.7250, the support holds the 0.7200 handle.

    MACD grew less which means further strengthening for the sellers. RSI still was seen in the oversold territory and supported another downtrend.

    Technical indicators exhibit a bearish tone. It is highly expected for a downward movement within the 0.7100 and 0.7150 levels.

  • AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 10, 2017

    The recent drop in the value of the US dollar proved to be good news for the Australian dollar, as this provided substantial support for the AUD during the previous trading session. In spite of the fact that the previous sessions were mostly made up of high bottoms and tops, the Australian dollar was still generally able to maintain its standing on the positive side of the chart. The AUD/USD pair closed down the previous trading session at 0.7353 points after increasing by +0.82% or 0.0060 points.

    A number of Australian economic data was released during Monday’s trading session, with the Building Approvals data coming in at a positive 7.0% reading and the Australian retail sales data coming in at a somewhat dismal reading of 0.2% after failing to meet market expectations of 0.4%. Meanwhile, the US Labor Market Conditions Index dropped by 0.3 points, while the Consumer Credit data surged by 24.5 billion from its previous reading of 18.3 billion.

    The AUD/USD pair will be starting off today’s trading session within a somewhat critical range within 0.7341 to 0.7385 points. If the currency pair moves just underneath 0.7341, then this will be an indicator of a larger selling pressure than buying pressure at the present levels of the pair. Since there are no expected economic news releases from the region for today, traders are most likely to focus on external events and its effect on the USD and subsequently, on its effect on the AUD. The US dollar could lose its appeal as an asset if oil prices drop further which will cause US Treasury yields to fall as well.

  • AUD/USD Technical Analysis: January 11, 2017

    The Aussie presented a sluggish stance yesterday as the Retail sales data showed negative results. The pessimistic input for the Chinese CPI had affected the currency as well.
    Moreover, an attempt to surpass the 0.7350 level were unsuccessful.

    Buyers advanced to 0.7385 where AUD/USD found some fresh offers and declined to 0.7350. Having tested the aforesaid level, sellers resumed its struggle to push the price downwards.

    During the morning trades, the price tested 200-EMA as indicated in the 4-hour chart. It further stalls the bull’s movement to continue forward as it acted as the spot’s resistance.

    The 200 and 100-EMAs are neutral while 50-EMA edged higher as mentioned in the same timeframe. Resistance holds 0.7400 level, support is seen at 0.7350 region .

    MACD indicator dwindled and implied weak position against the buyers. RSI consolidated around the undervalued readings.

    As the forecast says, bearish bias kept prevailing in the market. In the most probable scenario, if the price focus below the 0.7350 support level the short-term downtrend could possibly continue. The next target of the sellers are marks 0.7250 and 0.7300.

  • AUD/USD Technical Analysis: January 19, 2017

    The Australian Dollar presented some optimism compared with its U.S peer that receives support from the dynamic pricing of oil. The awaited data from the labour market is deemed to support the Aussie at the same time.

    The tone of the market remains to be positive. The AUD/USD is confined on its 2-week highs near the 0.7550 level. The price hovered around a very tight range and tends to go into a lower position. The 4-hour chart showed the spot stick on top of the moving averages. The 100 and 50-EMAs preserved its bullish tone while 200-EMA is flat. Resistance hit 0.7550 mark, support is found at 0.7500 range.

    MACD lied in the same level which confirmed buyer’s strength once again. The RSI is currently on the consolidation period and entered the overvalued zone.

    Forecasts mentioned for a further short-term downward correction. In case the closing trades are set under 0.7750, the price will impose a sell signal. The possible target of the bears is 0.7500.

  • AUD/USD Technical Analysis: February 16, 2017

    The Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar declined on Wednesday’s trading session but was able to recover after a break out reaching a new high. It broke higher than the 0.7695 Resistance level and proceed with the upward momentum after lows at 0.7159 level. It is expected for the price to go higher in the next trading sessions towards the next target at 0.7800 zone. The key support is found at 0.7605 level and a break lower than the said level would complete the uptrend of the pair.

    The market could try to move towards the 0.7750 level that is found to be a resistance level for the long-term charts. Short term reversals are eminent to be become buying opportunities to be forward implying a purchase after decline may not be favorable for short-term charts. Most likely, the 0.76 level will continue to be a strong psychological level in the market.

  • AUD/USD Technical Analysis: February 27, 2017

    The Australian currency declined following the announcement made by the RBA Governor, Philip Lowe confirming that the Central Bank will not approve for an interest rate hike in the near future. Regardless of the positive trend in general, bulls were unable to climb higher.

    Having posted its recent highs within the 0.7739 region, the price weakened and turned back towards 0.7700 where sustained a consolidated position throughout the night trades.
    The increasing demand for the US dollar caused the Aussie to break under 0.7700 driving the AUD to 0.7650.

    The 50-EMA was being tested by the price as indicated in the 4-hour chart. The 50, 100 and 200 moving averages moved upwards. Resistance is shown at 0.7700, support is found at 0.7650. MACD decreased indicating a sell signal. The RSI appeared to be neutral.

    The AUDUSD pair is required to beef up and take a grasp into the 0.7700 level as a means of strength recovery. The recent weakness is regarded as corrective. There is a chance to buy the dips.

    A break under 0.7650 will ease the movement of the upward pressure. A move on the underside of 0.7550 will neutralize the buying pressure and open possibility for further weakening.

  • AUD/USD Technical Analysis: March 20, 2017

    There is no expected economic release scheduled from the Australian dollar on Friday. Investors were in a wait-and-see mode for the RBA Meeting minutes scheduled on Tuesday. Moreover, the offered tone near the greenbacks provided strength for the Aussie.

    Buyers found a hurdle around 0.7700 but needed to leave off their gains.The major rebounded and stalled on top of 0.7660.

    A bout of renewed buying pressure came up during Friday’s Asian session. The AUD/USD were pulled back by the buyers towards 0.7700 removing its current losses.

    The 4-hour chart determines the price continuously develop above the moving averages as the 200 and 50-EMA directed higher while 100-EMA seems neutral. Resistance entered 0.7700 level, support holds 0.7650 mark.

    The histogram preserved in the same region favoring buyer’s strength. RSI indicator is situated close to the overvalued area which confirms another move lower.

    After making a gap on top of 0.7700, the next will be 0.7750. Failure to post its fresh gains could possibly occur some profit taking. The AUD would likely weaken reaching 0.7600-0.7620.

  • AUD/USD Technical Analysis: March 23, 2017

    The risk-off market sentiment alongside the softening of copper and other commodities affected the Australian dollar on Wednesday.

    On Wednesday, the AUDUSD was neutral following the sell-off occurred on Tuesday. The sellers found a hurdle around 0.7650 mark. The handle slowed down the seller’s movement and the price was rejected. The spot was confined near the region as its progresses in an aimless manner.

    The commodity-linked pair tested the 50 and 200-EMA while the 50-EMA crossed on top of the 100-EMA touching the 200-EMA as shown in the 4-hour chart. Also, the 50-EMA preserved a bullish pattern while the 100-EMA shifted downwards while the 200-EMA showed signs of being neutral.

    Resistance entered 0.7700, support is at 0.7650.

    The MACD declined which confirmed the weak position of the buyers. RSI oscillator en route downwards.

    A break to 0.7600 region will pass the attention to the level 0.7550.

  • AUD/USD Technical Analysis: March 29, 2017

    The Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar declined in the beginning of Tuesday trading but turned around and found significant support level at 0.7587 with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. A bullish candle was seen and the market tries to move to higher towards the .7750 level and above.

    Later on, the market was able to break higher than the 0.7648 resistance level completing the downtrend from 0.7749 to 0.7587 level. It is more favorable to buy this pair with chances for a breakout in the gold market which traders are trying to attain and if they are successful in doing so higher than $1262 level, this would give higher returns to the traders.

    The current price could further go up towards the next target at 0.7700 zone while a break lower than the support level at 0.7587 could follow downtrend towards 0.7500 mark.

  • AUD/USD Technical Analysis: April 10, 2017

    The Australian dollar became weak on Friday along the sluggish statistics of Performance of Construction Index. Meanwhile, the risk off sentiment amid Asian session have put pressure on risk assets including treasury yields, equities, and the Aussie.

    The pair continued to be well offered last Friday and resumed a negative sentiment throughout the day. The AUD leave the region 0.7550 during the night trades extending its bearish impetus within the day.

    The sellers were able to reach the 0.7515 mark and rebounded. The major hovered over its session lows until the outset of North American hours.

    As indicated in the 4-hour chart, the AUD/USD is positioned under the moving averages which shifted lower. Resistance holds 0.7550, support pierced into 0.7500.

    The MACD histogram sustained its level affirming sellers’ strength. RSI indicator is found near the oversold territory which signaled a lover move.

    Forecast says the pair would continue to decline within a short period of time. We still expect for a further move towards 0.7500.

  • AUD/USD Technical Analysis: April 19, 2017

    The Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar declined during the Tuesday session intersecting the 200-day Exponential Moving Average. There is a significant support found below at 0.75 level and a sign of supportive candle pattern indicates buying opportunity. If the price breaks above the shooting star on Monday session, this signals a bullish tone. Hence, it is much favorable to go long for this pair. The gold market could support this pair which is influential for this pair.

    The pair broke lower than the 0.7535 support level indicating that the price moves upward from 0.7473 up to 0.7610 zone. This could further go down towards the next testing at 0.7473 support level and a breakdown in the said level will complete the downtrend indicating a continuation from 0.7749 mark towards 0.7300 area.

  • AUD/USD Technical Analysis: May 12, 2017

    The Australian currency showed some interesting trading session and had an initial downturn corresponding with the actions of the New Zealand dollar. A bit of rally had started as we look forward to found further resistance within the 0.7380 handle.

    The Aussie appeared to be caught off guard as of the moment because of the rally occurred in the gold markets along with the partial decline of the US dollar.

    In case that the precious metal would reverse and drop, the AUD will continue to weaken as well.

    The commodity currencies may not be so attractive at this time since some of them are quite falling considering the CAD and NZD to have a softer stance while the Norwegian Krona also appeared to be dull. Not to mention the Mexican peso which starts to be weak again.

    In order to initiate the selling, exhaustion and near-term rallies are to be found that may allow for a successful break above the region 0.7425.

    Moreover, the volatility would extend that will offer value for the greens in which seems favorable for us. In case that we create a gap under the lows once again, the market is projected to move near the 0.72 handle, en route 0.70.

  • AUD/USD Technical Analysis: May 17, 2017

    The Australian dollar closed higher than the U.S. dollar during Tuesday session. Investors responded to the raising concerns in U.S. with lower U.S. Treasury yields, feeble U.S. housing data and a lesser possibility for a Fed rate hike in June. The overall direction of the pair will depend on the Treasury yields. Traders reacted pessimistically to Westpac Consumer Sentiment dropping up to 1.1.%.

    There are no major U.S. economic reports to be released today. Traders continuously keep an eye on problems with Trump regime and they have the chance to react to the most recent weekly inventories data of U.S. Energy Information Administration.

    The main trend is directed downward as shown in the daily chart. The pair is trying to move higher from the .7329 low on May 9 although the momentum remains the same. To reverse the trend, traders need to impede the short-retracement zone between .7442 and .7469.
    Traders should also look out for the resistance level as a strong resistance region is formed at .7454 with major 50% level. The closest support resides at .7384 key Fibonacci region followed by .7329 down below.

    The current price level set at .7419 and stays between the resistance and support levels which means that traders have uncertainty and expected volatility in the market.

    If buyers try to oppose the trend, the next psychological would be at .7443 and .7446 region then moves to .7449 and .7454 and will most likely gain momentum at .7454 towards the next target at .7469 level. The .7469 Fibonacci level at .7469 would be the turning point for the next downtrend towards .7501 angle.

    Underneath, the initial support target would be at .7389 uptrend angle followed by a major Fibonacci level at .7384 and lastly towards the .7329 as the probable bottom support angle. However, if the market fails to attain this level, there is a high possibility for a breakout at .7359.

    Until buyers return in the market and exceed the .7469 level, there will be least resistance and rallies will be fruitful in the market. This will affect the price trend whether it will be reversed or not. Currently, the market gives off a neutral stance.

  • AUD/USD Technical Analysis: May 19, 2017

    The Australian currency experienced a volatile session yesterday due to an initial shot higher with gold. But decided to sell off as the market needs for another leg found at the 0.74 handle, the support was found but rebounded.

    The market appeared to be slightly mixed-up as of the moment and attempted to estimate the risk of the political uncertainties in Washington DC.

    Based on a longer-term perspective, the market needs to maintain a bullish attitude only when the gold markets engage in the rally. It remains to have lots of noise though, a smaller position would be better while the Aussie continued to accelerate.

    Meanwhile, charts showed some activity of buying on the dips which could be a good idea in trading in the market.

    The level below 0.74 must provide a massive support because a breakdown under this range will generate a negative signal. Consider the potential gap within the upward bias, so it is advisable to hold for small positions on near-term charts generating short-term gains.

    In case that we cut through above the mark 0.75, it will favor for a longer-term position. In this point in time, riding the market would let you experience emotional highs and lows.

    As indicated in the previous charts and sessions, making money is easy in both directions but the market is currently choppy. It does not offer any signs as of now, causing the participant to endure difficulty in driving the market.

  • AUD/USD Technical Analysis: May 24, 2017

    The Australian currency against the U.S. dollar broke above the 0.75 level but was also reversed soon after. If the price breaks lower than the 0.7450 region, the price would further decline. This is also similar for the long-term trades.

    The gold market directly influences the pair including the risk appetite for these trades. However, it seems that the gold market is not performing well. The raw material trades from Australia supplied within Asia is also falling since there is low demand for copper and iron which are the fundamental trades of the country.

    In a long-term trend, it seems that the market sustains the current trading condition. Its downtrend could attain up to 0.70 level for long-term. If the price breaks higher than the 0.7525 region, it could reach its way about the 0.7750 level for a longer term.

    However, reaching the said level won’t be easy. Although, the market usually change position in a bullish pattern and makes it more complicated when the market worries. This is what anticipated to happen when the price soars that makes pullbacks not surprising anymore. The uptrend line is noticeable on the hourly chart and a break lower than the 0.7450 level would bring the price down with an increase in bearish pressure.

  • AUD/USD Technical Analysis: May 31, 2017

    The Australian currency had slightly decline amid Tuesday trades, however, met a support around 0.74 mark to bounce back and climb upwards. An ability to cut through above the 0.7450 region is highly important. The resumption of the bullish pressure will prompt the market to advanced towards the area above 0.75, which is previously a significant resistance.

    The rally is expected to run out within a short period of time, in case the gold surge considering a “risk on” rally. Therefore, the market has to continue trend upwards.

    The gold markets appeared to be a safe place to get involved with. When gold was bought as a fear trade there is a tendency that Aussie will not follow. Nevertheless, a positive feeling towards the markets will help the AUDUSD to attempt a higher move.

    The AUD is starting to gain strength, but the Kiwi appeared to be much stronger as it drives forward. Forecast says, the favor should remain in the seat of the New Zealand dollar, but there are predictions that both commodity currencies will go through similar directions.

    A break down under the 0.74 range would indicate a negative signal and caused the Australian dollar to plunged lower.

    Alternatively, the pair is projected to experience volatility, yet this is not new to this pair since the market always run in circles. Volatility awaits upon moving forward, for that reason you should look out on your stop losses.

  • AUD/USD Technical Analysis: June 2, 2017

    The Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar did not have a good trading session on Thursday. It breaks at the 0.74 level followed by a rebound towards the 0.7420 region. Since then, the market declined and broke to a fresh new low. Currently, the pair is depreciating and makes it more vulnerable to further decline especially since the jobs data will come out today.

    If the jobs data met the expectations, then this will most likely push the currency lower towards the 0.73 handle. However, if the pair moves in the upper channel then this would open opportunities to buy this pair especially if it breaks higher than the 0.7475 region. Although, we cannot be certain of now if this would occur since the market is still undecided on which direction to choose.

    The next target for this pair is 0.73 level with the tendency to move forward which makes it more favorable for selling. The market already anticipates this and it will be good to follow so.
    It seems that the currency is having a difficult time while the New Zealand dollar is performing better. Even so, traders still opt for the Aussie but traders should be cautious in buying this pair in the current low levels.

    Overall the pair is sold-off by traders and it is reasonable to move along with this move. However, if this pair opens for the 0.73 region, this will push the price to lower levels immediately.

  • AUD/USD Technical Analysis: June 21, 2017

    The Australian currency attempted to initiate a rally amid the day and reversed to sell off. The 0.7575 mark was being tested due Aussie’s actions, hence, it provides a significant amount of support. In case that a breakdown occurred beyond that point, the market will be pushed down through 0.7550 region which is an interesting area in the past.

    The market will keep on reaching the 0.765 handle when a bounce happen and when it break into the upside will drove near the region 0.7750.

    At the end of the day, the market will continue following its risk appetite and traders should watch closely what will happen within that point. The central bank of New Zealand is expected to release a statement about interest rates scheduled today while the Aussie dollar will seek the same path.

    Moreover, gold markets remain to be in a downbeat which can be felt by the AUD as well. With this, players should search for a support below prior the rebound. As the market still have challenging nature to deal with because of the many bits and pieces moving around, particularly the plan of the Fed Reserve to increase rates.

    Above all, the pressure brought by the precious metal, gold paired with the general outlook on risk tolerance is projected to wrought a chaotic situation over the market.

    In this event, it is complicated to determine where to go next as the consolidation is anticipated to keep going.

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