Monthly forecasts

EUR/JPY Monthly Fundamental Forecast – April 2016

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The EUR/JPY saw a gain of 3.38% after the euro soared to its highest level in 2016 as Eurozone data beat expectations including inflation data. The pair is trading at 128.07. With sentiment so poor in Japan it is hard to envisage a sudden upturn in risk appetite among Japanese investors. Portfolio outflows have accelerated notably into foreign fixed income markets, notably since USD/JPY began its sudden drop. In the eight weeks since the start of February, Japanese investors have bought close to JPY 9trn worth of foreign bonds.However, it is very likely that in the circumstances in which those outflows took place. Japanese investors hedged these outflows aggressively. These outflows are also most likely not a function of increased risk appetite but more a function of the falling value of foreign investments in yen terms that prompted a rebalancing as we approach the fiscal year-end in Japan.While the flow dynamics suggest upcoming softness in the yen, bulls would likely counter by pointing out that repatriation flows associated with benefits paid to retirees are a structural force that will prove conducive to strength in the currency over the medium term.The decision by the Bank of Japan to venture into negative territory has been criticized once in a while. This is because the aim of lowering the stronger Japanese yen was not achieved. After the policy, yen weakened a little bit but then found its ground and started appreciating.FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our  weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.eurjpy mUpcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Cur.EventForecastPrevious
Friday, April 1, 2016
  JPYTankan Large Manufacturers Index812
  CNYManufacturing PMI (Mar)49.349.0
  CNYCaixin Manufacturing PMI (Mar)48.248.0
  EURGerman Manufacturing PMI (Mar)50.450.4
  GBPManufacturing PMI (Mar)51.250.8
  USDNonfarm Payrolls (Mar)205K242K
  USDUnemployment Rate (Mar)4.9%4.9%
Monday, April 4, 2016
China – Tomb Sweeping Day
  AUDRetail Sales (MoM) (Feb)0.3%
  GBPConstruction PMI (Mar)54.2
Tuesday, April 5, 2016
  AUDInterest Rate Decision (Apr)2.00%
  GBPConstruction PMI (Mar)54.2
  GBPServices PMI (Mar)52.7
  USDISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Mar)54.153.4
Wednesday, April 6, 2016
  GBPServices PMI (Mar)52.7
  CADIvey PMI (Mar)53.4
Friday, April 8, 2016
  GBPManufacturing Production (MoM)0.7%
  CADEmployment Change (Mar)-2.3K
Monday, April 11, 2016
  CNYCPI (YoY) (Mar)2.3%
Tuesday, April 12, 2016
  GBPCPI (YoY) (Mar)0.3%
Wednesday, April 13, 2016
  CNYTrade Balance (USD) (Mar)32.59B
  USDRetail Sales (MoM) (Mar)-0.1%
  CADInterest Rate Decision0.50%
Thursday, April 14, 2016
  AUDEmployment Change (Mar)0.3K
  EURCPI (YoY) (Mar)
  GBPInterest Rate Decision (Apr)0.50%
Friday, April 15, 2016
  CNYGDP (YoY) (Q1)6.8%
  CNYIndustrial Production (YoY) (Mar)5.4%
Monday, April 18, 2016
  NZDCPI (QoQ) (Q1)-0.5%
Tuesday, April 19, 2016
  EURGerman ZEW Economic Sentiment4.3
Wednesday, April 20, 2016
  GBPClaimant Count Change (Mar)-18.0K
Monday, April 25, 2016
Friday, April 29, 2016

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