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EUR / USD: Trading the German ZEW economic sentiment


German ZEW economic sentiment is based on a monthly survey of institutional investors and analysts and their views of the German economy. A reading that is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the euro.

Background indicator:

German ZEW economic sentiment examines financial experts for evaluation of the direction of the German economy in the next six months, on the basis of economic data, including inflation, exchange rates and the stock market. This makes the index an important indicator of the economic outlook for the German economy for the next six months.

The indicator rose to 19.2 points in June, crushing forecasting 5.1 points. The weaker markets in the July report, with a forecast of 8.2 points reading.

Feelings and levels:

The eurozone economy is struggling, and Brexit replicas will only exacerbate the problems the bloc. The ECB does not want a higher exchange rate and Mario Draghi might be forced to take further monetary measures. Therefore, the overall sentiment is bearish on the EUR / USD going into this version.

Technical levels, from top to bottom: 1.1230, 1.1175, 1.1070, 1.10, 1.0825 and 1.0780

5 Scenarios

Within expectations: 5.0 to 11.0: In that case, the euro is likely to increase the range, with a small chance of breaking higher.

Above expectations: 11.1 to 15.0: An unexpected higher reading can send the EUR / USD above a resistance line.

Well above expectations: Above 15.1: In such a scenario, a second line of resistance could be broken.

Below expectations: 2.0 to 4.9: A sharper decline than expected could push the pair below one support level.

Well below expectations: Below 2.0: In this scenario, the EUR / USD could break below a second level of support.

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